Whitney Tilson’s electronic mail to investors discussing Stanphyl Capital September letter; is Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) dropping share?; disaster assembly at Volkswagen; Former Tesla employee speaks out after profitable $137M lawsuit; Tesla rolls out full self driving (“FSD”) mode; TSLA worker farewell; Can an EV prevent cash?
Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
Stanphyl Capital September Letter
1) Hooked up is the September letter by Tesla bear Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital.
2) Tesla bull Gary Black tweeted:
$TSLA 3Q delivs of 241.3K, up +73% YoY. [email protected] everybody else within the trade is down YoY, which implies TSLA is taking large share. Led by file 67-70Okay delivs in China, placing to relaxation any notion China demand is slowing. Watch Road to take up FY’21 and FY’22 earnings ests.
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 2, 2021
A TSLA bear replied to me:
For Tesla to develop its unit gross sales by 73% year-over-year in Q3 means Tesla probably misplaced EV market share from a yr in the past.
Why? As a result of the general EV market probably grew quicker than 73%. I say “probably” as a result of we don’t have the info from all automakers for Q3 but. I don’t even have dependable August numbers but from all automakers in all geographies.
For the primary 7 months of 2021, the worldwide EV market grew models by 154% — from 1.2 million models offered to three.zero million models offered. That’s in comparison with the identical 7 months from the prior yr.
Maybe the EV market development slowed for all of Q3 — it might very effectively have performed so. Did it decelerate all the way in which right down to Tesla’s 73% year-over-year development price? Maybe, maybe not. We don’t have that quantity but. My guess is that it’s greater than 73%, even when it might not be as excessive because the 154% that the trade skilled within the first 7 months of the yr.
And if the opposite firms’ EV companies are rising quicker than Tesla’s EV enterprise, shouldn’t they commerce at greater multiples than Tesla?
Later, he continued:
We simply bought the total international EV gross sales numbers for August. Tesla’s international EV market share was 10%, bringing Tesla year-to-date (Jan-Aug) international EV market share to 13%.
For the primary eight months of 2020 — yr over yr — it was 18%. In different phrases, Tesla misplaced 25% international EV market share in 2021 in comparison with 2020.
The worldwide EV industry grew at 114% and Tesla grew at 86% — all for the primary eight months of 2021, in comparison with 2020.
Whenever you develop at solely 86% and the competitors grows at 114%, you lose 25% market share in a yr.
My analyst Kevin DeCamp requested:
Wow, together with PHEVs as standard proper? Will verify BEV market share after I get an opportunity.
Any opinion on VW administration latest feedback on Tesla?
My pal replied:
Sure, these are the entire EV numbers. EV = BEV + PHEV. Any automobile with a plug.
It doesn’t make any distinction, or no less than not any materials distinction, as a result of we’re measuring year-over-year and it was the identical definition for the prior interval. That is in regards to the change in market share, not market share.
There are Three potentialities:
-
- BEV outgrew PHEV: Then, Tesla was dropping extra market share in BEV.
- PHEV outgrew BEV: Then, Tesla was not taking part within the faster-growing section.
- BEV grew on the identical price as PHEV: Then it actually doesn’t matter in any respect.
As for VW’s feedback, I didn’t hear/learn all of them, aside from one thing to the impact that their first manufacturing unit (Wolfsburg) is comparatively inefficient in comparison with newer factories reminiscent of greenfield factories.
That is true per definition. I’ve been to Wolfsburg many occasions and have in contrast it to different automobile factories in Japan, Mexico, US, and many others. You may’t examine a factory from 1938 that’s positioned inside a metropolis, with a brand new manufacturing unit that has all types of area and is positioned in an enormous greenfield space exterior town.
VW is aware of this not solely as a result of it’s apparent anyway, but additionally as a result of it operates over 100 different automobile factories world-wide and each single one in every of them is newer than its 1938 Wolfsburg manufacturing unit. I used to be in VW’s manufacturing unit in Chattanooga, TN, most just lately and it’s a really completely different story than the Wolfsburg manufacturing unit. Then think about what the newer ones in Mexico and China appear like.
VW positive can deal with the manufacturing. There’s an inherent “burden” of working older actual property, however the flipside of that equation is that it’s already paid for. In different phrases, it’s like proudly owning an previous metropolis home and renovating it, versus constructing a model new home from scratch on a big lot far exterior town.
Disaster Assembly At Volkswagen
3) Kevin writes:
All that point I’ve spend attempting to elucidate the tesla bull case and now VW does it in 2 sentences:
“A Tesla Three is in-built ten hours, greater than thrice as quick as a VW ID.Three in Zwickau. This places Tesla in a special dimension in relation to productiveness and profitability.”
Based on BI sources Herbert Diess and Model CEO Ralf Brandstätter referred to as Thursday all 120 prime managers in Wolfsburg collectively for a disaster assembly
Diess acknowledged that in comparison with Tesla and Chinese language producers VW is just too costly, sluggish and with low productiveness not aggressive
— Alex (@alex_avoigt) October 1, 2021
Full thread here.
Former Tesla Employee Speaks Out After Profitable $137 Million Lawsuit
4) Former Tesla worker speaks out after winning $137 million lawsuit. Excerpt:
Owen Diaz, the previous Tesla worker who sued the electrical automobile firm over allegations of racism, is opening up about his expertise.
“[Tesla] determined to not comply with by, they determined to kill investigations,” Diaz mentioned on “Good Morning America” Wednesday. “Tesla, as an organization, as a complete, must get up. You recognize you possibly can’t preserve treating employees like this.”
Tesla Rolls Out FSD Mode
5) Tesla rolls out full self driving (“FSD“) mode:
Tesla Worker Farewell
6) A Employees Product Supervisor at Tesla simply tweeted a thread which begins:
I’m bidding a farewell to an organization I deeply admire. Whereas a lot has been written about @Tesla and @elonmusk, I’d wish to share a couple of virtues this expertise has instilled in me…👇👇👇 pic.twitter.com/GRbZ257vyr
— Michael ₿. Rihani 🇺🇸⚡️🇱🇧 (@MichaelRihani) September 25, 2021
Can An EV Save You Cash?
7) From one in every of my readers:
I consider within the coming EV (and autonomous) driving future. My spouse and I are having this dialog proper now and certain going to an EV from fuel for the primary time.
Extra assist for the expected future… Does driving an electric car really save you money? A cheapskate runs the numbers – MarketWatch
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