Electrical automobiles will develop from 0.7% of the worldwide light-duty car (LDV) fleet in 2020 to 31% in 2050, reaching 672 million EVs, predicts the US Vitality Info Administration (EIA).
The EIA estimates that the worldwide LDV fleet total – each fuel and electrical – contained 1.31 billion automobiles in 2020, and it expects this fleet to develop to 2.21 billion automobiles by 2050 as the results of an improve in financial exercise, inhabitants, and personal mobility.
It additionally predicts that the worldwide fuel and diesel LDV fleet will peak in 2038 as the results of important EV gross sales development.
The EIA defines LDVs as “passenger and fleet vehicles and vans with a gross car weight ranking of 8,500 kilos or much less.” It defines electrical automobiles as any LDV with a charging plug, and that definition consists of all-electric automobiles and plug-in hybrid electrical automobiles.
OECD vs. non-OECD nation EV projections
The EIA then splits its projections between OECD nations and non-OECD nations.
The Paris-based Organisation for Financial Co-operation and Growth (OECD) is a global group that promotes insurance policies to enhance the financial and social well-being of individuals worldwide.
The OECD’s 38 members are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Eire, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the UK, and the US.
The EIA says the entire variety of LDVs will develop extra in non-OECD nations. Right here’s why:
We venture the inhabitants of non-OECD nations will develop at over thrice the inhabitants development fee of OECD nations, and that the non-OECD motorization fee will improve from 92 automobiles per thousand individuals to 173 automobiles per thousand individuals between 2020 and 2050.
The OECD nations’ motorization fee stays round 530 automobiles per thousand individuals by way of the projection interval. Due to this development in inhabitants and motorization charges, we venture the variety of LDVs in non-OECD nations will surpass these in OECD nations in 2025.
So the cut up of EV development happens between OECD nations and non-OECD nations, in accordance with the EIA, because it tasks EV fleet shares will attain 34% in OECD nations and 28% in non-OECD nations by 2050.
Though the standard [gas and diesel] LDV fleet peaks in 2023 for OECD nations, quicker development within the non-OECD fleet ends in almost two-thirds of light-duty EVs being in non-OECD nations by 2050.
Mint noted in August about China, a non-OECD nation:
China, which is by far the most important marketplace for electrical vehicles when it comes to unit gross sales, fell out of the top-10 [in 2020] with electrical vehicles accounting for six.2% of passenger automotive gross sales within the nation.
Norway, an OECD member, at present has extra electrical vehicles per capita than some other nation. EVs made up nearly 75% of latest automotive gross sales there in 2020.
Electrek’s Take
Right here’s what’s vital to bear in mind about these projections: They’re primarily based on the assumption that present coverage and expertise tendencies proceed. In different phrases, the EIA doesn’t anticipate change in both coverage or technological improvements in its predictions, and each are definitely prone to occur within the subsequent 29 years, simply as they’re quickly occurring proper now. What’s coming down the pipeline may be very troublesome to precisely quantify.
So one would hope that modifications happen in each OECD and non-OECD nations that enhance the variety of electrical automobiles and cut back fuel and diesel automobiles. Certainly, that’s what greater than 200 nations are about to attempt to do on the COP26, which begins this Sunday in Glasgow.
Learn extra: Tesla pushes Norway electric car sales to yet another record
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